Unravelling Threads of Change: Economic & Climate-Induced Migration in the Sahel

Naledi Molai; Ashley Thomson

Unravelling Threads of Change: Economic & Climate-Induced Migration in the Sahel

Naledi Molai and Ashley Thomson

Introduction

The Sahel region in Africa encompasses parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Sudan. It has a unique climate with variable weather patterns and is recognized as one of the more severely affected regions of the world by climate change (Sossou et al., 2019; United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2024). This commentary explores the complex interplay between climate factors, economic factors, and migration patterns in the Sahel.

The Sahel Region

A large tree at sunset in the Sahel Cameroon — **Figure 1:** Coucher de soleil au sahel Cameroun (Minette Lontsie/Wikimedia Commons). CC BY-SA 4.0

It is widely agreed that political, economic, social, and environmental factors contribute to the decision to migrate (Teye & Nikoi, 2022; Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights [OHCHR], 2021). Migration is a strategy to find alternate sources of income and improve socioeconomic conditions (OHCHR, 2021; Mbiyozo, 2020). In the Sahel region, socioeconomic conditions are strained by the impacts of climate change (Sossou et al., 2019; OHCHR, 2021; Teye & Nikoi, 2022).

Climate Change Effects

There has been a clear decreasing trend of rainfall in the Sahel since the 1960s (Dai et al., 2004; Sissoko et al., 2010). A decrease of 20% to 40% was noted between 1968 and 1990 (Dai et al., 2004). Over the past half-century, the region has endured four major droughts – in 1973, 1984, 1990, and 2012 (Teye & Nikoi, 2022). Additionally, the Sahel has experienced many disastrous floods (UNDP, 2024). These extreme weather patterns negatively impact agricultural yields (Sossou et al., 2019). Predictions from 16 studies indicate a median reduction of 18% in future crop yields across Sudano-Sahelian nations due to climate change, as it reduces the natural capital and fertile land in the Sahel (Roudier et al., 2011; McMichael et al., 2012).

The OHCHR (2021) reports that 79% of Sahelian residents are farmers in rural regions who rely on agriculture for income. Due to reductions in crop yields, many farmers are forced to migrate seasonally or permanently (Teye & Nikoi, 2022). As of December 31, 2023, there are at least 4 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in the Sahel region (UNHCR, 2024b). Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2050, the urban population of these Sahelian countries will be approximately 440 million, and the total population will be over 700 million (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2018). As populations continue to increase, policies must be implemented to assist the increasing amount of IDPs and to allow Sahelian countries to adapt to and prevent climate change.

With volatile macroeconomic situations, a lack of public resources, and ongoing violent conflicts, Sahelian governments cannot provide adequate support to many migrants, leaving them more vulnerable to exploitation. (UNDP, 2024; OHCHR, 2021; Mibiyozo, 2020). Population growth will further strain these governments. Table 1 summarizes climate, conflict, migration, and urbanization-related challenges facing each of the eight Sahelian countries studied in this commentary.

A satellite view of fires around a lake. — **Figure 32:** Fires near Lake Chad (MODIS 2021-10-14) (MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC/Wikimedia Commons). Public Domain

Strategies For Supporting Migration

Considering the information presented in Table 1 and this commentary, it is critically important that aid organizations and Sahelian governments support migration in the region (Mbiyozo, 2020; Teye & Nikoi, 2022). Infrastructure, economic, and social support are among the most important changes that must be made to allow citizens to live in safe and prosperous conditions (Mbiyozo, 2020; UNDP, 2024).

The UNDP (2024) suggests a long-term investment in clean energy will help transform urbanizing Sahelian economies, as this area has a high potential for solar energy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2023) suggests that international investment and aid are necessary to fund social programs and move towards a sustainable future in the Sahel. The regional nature of the challenges suggests that a collaborative effort between Sahelian Governments will be crucial. Mbiyozo (2020) recommends that solutions be integrated within all levels of government and community organizations.

Table 1: Summary of Challenges, Effects on Urbanization, & Results of Climate Change

Table 1: Summary of Challenges, Effects on Urbanization, & Results of Climate Change
Country	Challenges	Effects on Urbanization	Results
Skip Table 1
Burkina Faso	Weather extremes impact agriculture, rural livelihoods, and urban food security Droughts and floods lead to migration (Zickgraf et al. 2016; Teye & Nikoi, 2022)	Inadequate urban planning, services, and governance issues lead to informal settlements and urban sprawl in major cities (UN-Habitat, n.d.)	Urban population: 15.5% in 1996 to 31.5% in 2016, projected 52% by 2050 Growth rate: 4.99% (2015-2020) (UN-Habitat, 2024)
Mali	Desertification, flash floods, temperature rise affect agriculture yields and increase migration (Teye & Nikoi, 2022)	Armed conflict, poverty and hunger drive displacement to urban areas and stress capacities (Hummel, 2016; Teye & Nikoi, 2022)	About 400,000 IDPs as of Dec. 31, 2023 55,000 Malians fleeing conflict into Mauritania in 2023 (UNHCR, 2023; UNHCR, 2024b).
Mauritania	Drought and water scarcity impact livelihoods and hunger Rising sea levels threaten coastal areas (Zickgraf et al. 2016; Teye & Nikoi, 2022).	Influx of Malian refugees in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou due to conflict Lack of basic services Urgent adaptation and planning needed (UNHCR, 2024b)	Severe humanitarian and protection crisis Significant refugee movements Over 200,000 displaced persons (UNHCR, 2024c; UNHCR, 2024b)
Nigeria	Rising sea levels, flooding, and changing rainfall patterns affect agriculture and drive urban migration (Teye & Nikoi, 2022; Zickgraf et al. 2016).	Conflicts over scarce resources leading to internal migration Rapid unplanned urbanization and lack of infrastructure (OHCHR, 2021; Aliyu & Amadu, 2017).	Population growth in urban centers Capital Lagos has a population of about 20 million with 6% annual growth Over 3 million IDPs as of Dec. 31, 2023 (United Nations Environment Programme, n.d.; UNHCR, 2023)
Sudan	Desertification, reduced rainfall driving migration as agriculture becomes unsustainable. Unequal access to clean water, particularly in squatter settlements and IDP camps, intensify conflicts over resources (Assal, 2008)	Economic/social service concentrated in Khartoum, causing sprawl and inequality Migration due to disasters Strain on urban infrastructure and services (Assal 2008)	Khartoum’s population skyrocketed: 250,000 in 1956 to 4.5 million officially in 2005 and over 7 million unofficially IDPs in Khartoum lack support from the government (Assal, 2008)
Niger	Droughts and erratic rainfall affect food security and livelihoods, and drive rural to urban migration (World Bank, 2021b)	Rapid population growth and integration challenges Limited decentralization progress (World Bank, 2021a)	Focus on efficient service delivery amidst rapid urban growth Development of water harvesting techniques, irrigation systems, and water storage facilities (World Bank, 2021b; World Bank, 2021b).
Senegal	Coastal erosion and flooding affect Dakar Impacts on agriculture push rural to urban migration (Rigaud et al., 2021)	Economic migration without planning leads to urban poverty Inadequate urban infrastructure and poor service delivery (Rouhana & Ranarifidy, 2016)	Economic and political factors like neighbors Refugees, who are citizens of ECOWAS, request provisions for freedom of movement and access to the labor market (UNHCR, 2017)
Chad	Drought frequency, desertification affect agricultural productivity and livelihoods (UNHCR, 2024a)	Conflicts and environmental challenges cause displacement and urban strain (Internal Organization for Migration, 2022).	Internal migration influenced by search for opportunities, impacts of instability To date, 2,162 individuals (636 households) relocated from the villages of Ademour and Dornong to Kerri (UNHCR, 2024a)

Note. Data from cited sources in the table. The first column summarizes the effects of climate change impacting the eight Sahelian countries studied in this commentary. The second column is an overview of urbanization and migration trends and challenges in each country. The third column is an overview of the impact these climate and migration trends have had on each country’s urban population and internal displacement.

Conclusion

Migration to find better economic opportunities in the Sahel will persist as climate change worsens. The number of IDPs will continue to rise due to more frequent disasters and conflicts, combined with population growth. It will require an internationally collaborative solution to aid migrants facing economic and social challenges. Furthermore, there is limited material on the economic impacts of climate change-induced migration in the Sahel. There is an opportunity for more research in this area.

Media Attributions

Figure 1: Coucher de soleil au sahel Cameroun by Minette Lontsie (2018), via Wikimedia Commons, is used under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license.

Figure 2: Fires near Lake Chad (MODIS 2021-10-14) by MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC (2021), via Wikimedia Commons, is in the public domain.

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Navigating Climate Economics: Perspectives for a Sustainable Future Copyright © by Naledi Molai and Ashley Thomson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted.