Navigating the Waves: Analyzing Climate Change Impacts on Global Fisheries & Socioeconomic Resilience

Introduction

This short commentary will analyze the effects of climate change on global fisheries. With the evidential threat of climate change on global fisheries, it is essential to understand the impacts and cumulative effects climate change will have on fisheries around the globe. The objective is to outline the impacts of climate change on changing fish stocks, distribution patterns and communities that rely on fish as an essential food source and a way to make a living. It is important to understand the socioeconomic contribution of global fisheries to human society as the fishing sector itself provides more than 3 billion people with 20% of their average annual per capita protein intake and generates global revenues above USD 100 billion annually (Talloni-Álvarez et al., 2019).

Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries

Fish Stocks Moving North

Climate change has significantly altered the resiliency and stability of transboundary fish stocks in Canada and USA (University of British Columbia, 2022). As ocean temperatures rise, certain models have been shown to predict the migration of various species into high-latitude regions, specifically the Arctic and the Southern Ocean (Cheung et al., 2009). Regions that will potentially be affected the most are Canada and the United States below latitude 43 (University of British Columbia, 2022). As ecological communities change and alter with the warming of oceans, countries must shift management strategies and share information as species distribution shifts North due to warming southern waters (Palacios-Abrantes, 2023). As fish stocks move north due to climate change, the impacts on the tropics are predicted to be the highest, and maximum catch potential (MCP) and maximum revenue potential are expected to decrease by 38% and 33%, respectively, while the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) is expecting tropical fisheries MCP to decline by 80%

As climate change is affecting tropical fisheries, there will be positive impacts on more northern countries (Lam et al., 2016). Regions higher than 75°N and Northern Atlantic regions greater than 70°N are expected to have an increase in maximum revenue potential (MRP) of 71% to 100%.

Economic Challenges

The economies of fisheries in dependent countries are increasingly facing the impacts of climate change, posing significant challenges to the well-being of coastal, riverine, and island nations (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], 2018). Rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events disrupt marine ecosystems and fish habitats, affecting fish stocks and biodiversity (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2019). These changes threaten the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on fisheries and aquaculture for sustenance and income (FAO, 2018). It is shown that with rising CO₂ emissions, 2050 revenues could drop by more than 35% than the projected decrease in catches (Lam et al., 2016).

Shifts in the distribution and abundance of fish species due to warming waters are altering traditional fishing patterns and challenging the adaptive capacities of fishing communities (Cheung et al., 2016). Research indicates that approximately 43.5 million individuals are currently employed in fisheries and aquaculture worldwide, with a significant majority (90%) working as small-scale fishers. Additionally, it is believed that over 200 million people, primarily in developing nations, rely on small-scale fishing for their livelihoods (Mohanty et al., 2010). Extreme weather events such as storms and cyclones can cause damage to fishing infrastructure and vessels, further exacerbating the vulnerability of dependent economies (IPCC, 2019). Climate change impacts on fisheries have far-reaching consequences, including reduced catches, loss of income, and increased food insecurity, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation measures and international cooperation to support the resilience of fisheries-dependent nations.

Table 1 summarizes the impacts on global fisheries in the North and the South.

Table 1: Summary of Impacts in the North and South

Note. Data from Cheung et al. (2009), FAO (2018), IPCC (2019), Lam et al. (2016), Mohanty et al. (2010), Palacios-Abrantes (2023), Talloni-Álvarez et al. (2019), and University of British Columbia (2022)

Media Attributions

Figure 1: “Fish diversity” [collage of images] compiled by The0Quester (2021), via Wikimedia Commons, is used under a CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain license. [Original images listed below]

References

Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2009). Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries, 10(3), 235–251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x.

Cheung, W. W. L., Jones, M. C., Reygondeau, G., Stock, C. A., Lam, V. W. Y., & Frölicher, T. L. (2016). Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change. Ecological Modelling, 325, 57–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2018). Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 627. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/I9705EN/I9705EN.pdf

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2019). Summary for policymakers. In H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (Eds.), IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/.

Lam, V. W. Y., Cheung, W. W. L., Reygondeau, G., & Sumaila, U. R. (2016). Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change. Scientific Reports, 6, Article 32607. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32607.

Mohanty, B. P., Mohanty, S., Sahoo, J., & Sharma, A. P. (2010). Climate change: Impacts on fisheries and aquaculture. In S. Simard (Ed.), Climate change and variability (1st ed., pp. 119–138). InTech Open. http://doi.org/10.5772/9805.

Palacios-Abrantes, J. (2023, June 05). Tracking Climate-Driven Shifts in Fish Populations Across International Boundaries. NOAA Fisheries. Retrieved May 28, 2024, from https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/tracking-climate-driven-shifts-fish-populations-across-international-boundaries

Talloni-Álvarez, N. E., Sumaila, U. R., Le Billon, P., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2019). Climate change impact on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystem: The current state of knowledge. Marine Policy, 104, 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2019.02.035.

University of British Columbia. (2022, January 18). Nearly half of countries’ shared fish stocks are on the move due to climate change, prompting dispute concerns. ScienceDaily. Retrieved May 28, 2024, from https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220118094137.htm