How Feasible Are the 2050 Targets for Costa Rica?
Ainsley Mutrie and Moses Oyelakin
Introduction
This commentary explores how feasible the net-zero carbon emission goals of Costa Rica are regarding the target year of 2050. It discusses the goals and implementation of the nation’s National Decarbonization Plan (NDP), the biggest challenges for the country to overcome to achieve net-zero emissions, and the main sectors of focus to achieve this. Further, various uncertainties, including reliance on constant parameters to achieve hitting target goals and future costs surrounding investment and technology, surround and may hinder the goals of the NDP.
Costa Rica’s National Decarbonization Plan
Involving every sector in the country and stemming from data on the country’s major GHG emissions sources, Costa Rica’s implemented NDP lays out the process to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 (“Costa Rica releases national plan,” 2019). The plan identifies ten decarbonization categories and acknowledges the need to transform and implement short-to-long-term strategies and more. Some categories include changes to the transportation, agricultural and forestry sectors, changes to industrial processes/associated wastes, and consolidating the electrical grid to support the demand change from non-renewables to renewable/electric energies (Groves et al., 2020). The plan identifies eight strategies and five priorities of action and includes propositions, such as green tax reform, comprehensive reform of institutional, knowledge and digitalization-based economic strategy, the renewal of public transport and agricultural sectors, and creating the appropriate foundations for the electrification of the country (“Costa Rica releases national plan,” 2019).
Table 1 summarises Costa Rica’s National Decarbonization Plan.
Table 1: Summary of Costa Rica’s National Decarbonization Plan
| Skip Table 1 | |
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Target Achievement Year | 2050 |
| Net Zero GHG Emissions Goal | Achieved under NDP by 2050 |
| Net Economic Benefit (2020-2050) | $41 billion (discounted at 5% per year back to 2015) |
| Total Benefits | $78 billion |
| Total Costs | $37 billion |
| Major Reduction Sectors |
|
| Emissions Without NDP (2050) | Nearly 19 MtCO2e |
| Current Emissions | Approx. 12 MtCO2e |
Note. Data from Groves et al. (2020).
Achieving Decarbonization in Costa Rica
The Transport Sector
The literature agrees the transport sector is the highest emitter of emissions for Costa Rica, and to reach 2050 goals, dramatic changes need to occur to achieve the desired results. Since the transport sector accounts for 50% of the country’s net emissions, it should be decarbonized by 85-95% to achieve the 2050 goals (Quirós-Tortós & Victor-Gallardo, 2023). Noting that decarbonization needs to be partnered with the electrical sector, decarbonization not only equates to electrification but highlights the need to increase infrastructure to support this transition and to support public and non-motorized transport (Quirós-Tortós & Victor-Gallardo, 2023). Quirós-Tortós (2019) points out three key challenges, in particular, that inhibit the overall uptake of EVs in Latin America, including “lack of incentives, insufficient charging infrastructure, and the low-cost effectiveness of EVs.” These limitations may inhibit Costa Rica’s ability to achieve its NDP goals.
Financial & Non-Financial Incentives
The literature highlights both financial and non-financial incentives to be able to achieve decarbonization goals. Financial incentives include government involvement by implementing reduced taxes and rebates to reduce the upfront costs of EVs to consumers (Quirós-Tortós et al., 2019). Sartzetakis and Tsigari (2005) note that clean technology will not be adopted without regulation because the first users will bear the highest associated costs with the technology and will choose the “dirty” or more cost-effective technology/option by default. They conclude by mentioning that in most cases, a high tax is evitable and that the “Pigouvian tax will not be sufficient” (Sartzetakis & Tsigaris, 2005). Non-financial incentives examples include adding dedicated EV infrastructure such as parking spaces, charging stations and sharing bus lanes. Moreover, EV users are exempt from specific driving restrictions (Quirós-Tortós et al., 2019). Having a significant amount of charging stations is critical to support the current and projected demand for electrical use, and it is an important incentive when considering the increased uptake of EVs and the lack of such implementation would hinder Costa Rica’s progress (Groves et al., 2019). Other hindrances observed by Sartzetakis and Tsigaris (2005) note that the benefits derived from a change in clean technology rely on the number of consumers “making the same choice,” as this is how the number of users and numbers of stations could theoretically increase.
Uncertainties
Uncertainties are large and varied, as estimates for 30 years from now are littered with assumptions and uncertainties (Groves et al., 2020). Uncertainty includes surrounding costs of future technology, the long-term health of Costa Rica’s forests, which are being relied on for carbon sequestration and uncertainty related to the consequences of “failed” target requirements.
Conclusion
The literature agrees that no matter the level of changes that occur, a positive impact will occur and that these changes are in line with the already existing developmental goals of Costa Rica. The literature also agrees that if Costa Rica can facilitate these policies and changes, their targets of net-zero and maintaining a 1.5C are feasible.
Media Attribution
Figure 1: “Tilaran windmill” by Richie Diesterheft (2004), via Wikimedia Commons, is used under a CC BY 2.0 license.
References
Costa Rica releases national plan to decarbonize by 2050. (2019, December 17). SDG Knowledge Hub. https://sdg.iisd.org/news/costa-rica-releases-national-plan-to-decarbonize-by-2050/.
Diesterheft, R. (2004). Tilaran windmill [Image]. Wikimedia Commons. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tilaran_windmill.jpg.
Groves, D. G., James, S., Edmundo, M-P., Carlos, C., Luis, V-G., Guido, G., Jairo, Q-T., Felipe, D. L., Andrea, M. M., Valentina, S. G., & Adrien, V-S. (2020). The benefits and costs of decarbonizing costa Rica’s economy: Informing the implementation of costa Rica’s national decarbonization plan under uncertainty. Inter-American Development Bank. http://doi.org/10.18235/0002867.
Quirós-Tortós, J., & Victor-Gallardo, L. (2023). The bigger picture: Robust decarbonization of the transport sector in Costa Rica. IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 21(6), 77–90. https://doi.org/10.1109/MPE.2023.3308234.
Quirós-Tortós, J., Victor-Gallardo, L., & Ochoa, L. (2019). Electric vehicles in Latin America: Slowly but surely toward a clean transport. IEEE Electrification Magazine, 7(2), 22–32. https://doi.org/10.1109/MELE.2019.2908791.
Sartzetakis, E. S., & Tsigaris, P. (2005). Environmental externalities in the presence of network effects: Adoption of low emission technologies in the automobile market. Journal of Regulatory Economics, 28, 309–326. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11149-005-3961-3.
