Will Canada Hit Net Zero Emissions by 2050?
Conor Brown
Introduction
In this short commentary, we explore the optimistic goals that Canada has set to reach net zero emissions by 2050 (Conigrave, 2023).
How Canada Can Achieve Its Net-Zero Goal
Looking at Canada’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, Canada has committed to reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions by 40-45% by 2030 compared to levels recorded in 2005 (Dillon, 2016). For Canada to achieve its emissions reduction targets by 2030 and transition to a net-zero economy, it is essential to incorporate forest management adaptations to address climate change alongside mitigation efforts and the use of technologies such as carbon sequestration. Giving preference to industrial processes that produce negative emissions, such as biomass feedstocks, coupled with carbon capture and storage, are crucial steps for a successful transition and will produce significant attention towards policy formulation and fund allocation (Maenz, 2022). To meet the goal of keeping annual global temperature increases below two degrees, Canada must set a 2030 target of reducing GHG emissions by at least 73% below the 2005 levels. Canada would need to make even larger emission reductions to achieved its 1.5°C goal (Dillon, 2016).
Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, stated:
“Our plan to fight climate change and grow the economy is working. Our climate plan is on track to deliver the biggest cut to Canada’s emissions ever, because we’re pricing pollution, investing in clean energy, doubling the amount of nature we protect, and making our air cleaner by phasing out coal power. While we have made a lot of progress over the last four years, we know there’s much more to do. We’re committed to exceeding our 2030 Paris target and getting to net-zero emissions by 2050, as well as to putting our five-year targets into law. To help us get there, we are committed to implementing new measures that will cut pollution faster– such as planting 2 billion trees and other nature-based solutions, cutting energy waste and energy bills, making clean power more available, protecting and conserving more of Canada’s lands and oceans than ever before, supporting zero-emissions clean tech companies, and more. We continue to work towards being more ambitious to ensure a cleaner, more prosperous future for our kids and our grandkids.”
(Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019)
The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act
Enacted on June 29, 2021, the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act establishes Canada’s pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 within the law (Service Canada). However, the past evidence shows that the Canadian government has never met its targets and obligations (see Figure 1). The current government pledge is a significant investment in the fight against climate change, which previously failed, so meeting our 2030 and 2050 goals is crucial. However, a radical shift towards CO2 emission mitigation strategies to save energy and replace fossil fuels with clean energy sources is difficult, especially in minimizing negative effects on economic activity and living standards (Conigrave, 2023). Although the Canadian government has used carbon pricing, regulations, investment incentives, and green technology innovations to transition and balance a sustainable economy, it still needs to do more to meet the ambitious targets for 2030 and 2050. It is important that not only the Federal government acts but provinces and territories must be onboard to help accelerate the green transition.
Conclusion
According to the analysis gathered from the Climate Action Tracker, Canada’s climate action and emissions show that the current and planned measures are highly insufficient to meet the targets for limiting global warming (see Figure 2) (Climate Action Tracker, 2022b). While land use and forestry have historically balanced as sources and sinks for emissions, Canada’s policies fall short of the necessary reductions. Unfortunately, Canada’s commitments are not on track to align with either its own modelled pathways or its fair share of global efforts.
Media Attributions
Figure 1: “Federal government pledges since 1988 to date” was created by the author under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.
Figure 2: “Canada’s overall rating: Highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker [produced by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute] (2022), is used under the Climate Action Tracker Privacy Policy/Legal.
References
Climate Action Tracker. (2022a). Canada’s overall rating: Highly insufficient [Image]. Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute. Retrieved April 22, 2024, from https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/.
Climate Action Tracker. (2022b, December 20). Canada. Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute. Retrieved April 22, 2024, from https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/.
Conigrave, B. (2023, May 26). OECD economics department working papers: Canada’s transition to net zero emissions (No. 1760). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/efc1f36a-en.
Dillon, J. (2016, January). Huge challenges for Canada after Paris climate conference (Policy Briefing Paper No. 43). Kairos Canada. https://www.climatefast.ca/sites/default/files/files/Paris%20Briefing%20Paper.pdf.
Energy Innovation LLC. (2018, March 26). Canada energy policy simulator [Simulation]. Retrieved February 29, 2024, from https://energypolicy.solutions/simulator/canada/an.
Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2019, December 20). Government of Canada releases emissions projections, showing progress towards climate target [Press release]. Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/12/government-of-canada-releases-emissions-projections-showing-progress-towards-climate-target.html.
Government of Canada. (2024, April 5). Net-zero emissions by 2050. https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html.
Lantz, V., & Feng, Q. (2006). Assessing income, population, and technology impacts on CO2 emissions in Canada: Where’s the EKC? Ecological Economics, 57(2), 229–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.04.006.
Maenz, D. D. (2022, January 27). Achieving net zero 2050 in Canada: The critical roles of forest adaptation, biomass, and carbon capture and storage. Saskatchewan Coalition for Sustainable Development. https://www.sustainablesask.ca/uploads/1/2/3/8/123825013/ccs_knowledge_center_submission_jds_r2.pdf.
Understand and using CAT graphs. (2021, September). Climate Action Tracker. Retrieved March 14, 2024, from https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/cat-graphs/.
Long Descriptions
Figure 1 Long Description: Mulroney 1988 — 20% below 1988 levels by 2005, Mulroney 1992 — 1990 levels by 2000, Chretien 1993 — 20% below 1988 levels by 2005, Chretien 1997 — 6% below 1990 levels by 2008–2012, Harper 2007 — 20% below 2006 levels by 2020, Harper 2009 — 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, Harper 2015 — 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, Trudeau 2015 — 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, Trudeau 2020 — Exceed the 2030 target, and Trudeau 2020 — Net carbon zero by 2050. [Return to Figure 1]
- Canada overall rating — highly insufficient
- Based on modelled domestic pathways:
- Policies & action — highly insuficient (< 4°C world)
- NDC target — Almost sufficient (< 2°C world)
- Based on fair share:
- NDC target — insufficient (< 3°C world)
- Climate finance — highly insufficient
- Land use and forests have historically been — both a source and sink
